So you want to launch a business...

Market: a flat globe with lumps on it

The world may indeed be flatter than it once was; but it's still roughly spherical; and it's definitely lumpy.  Just ask the "experts."

Back in 2005,Thomas Friedman, borrowing a term from Nandan Nilekani, declared the modern economic world to be flat.  The phrase is short and catchy.  Accurate or not, it definitely caught on.

Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz disagreed.  In Making Globalization Work, he argued that globalization unreasonably favors the already affluent developed countries, making them even more powerful.  And the "Americanization" of the globe is creating backlash against loss of cultural identity and local autonomy.

Meanwhile, Richard Florida (the Creative Class guy) says the world is "spiky."  He asserts that centers of innovative power, such as Silicon Valley, Austin, Bangalore, Dublin, and Stockholm can be expected to dominate economic growth in the near-term, and perhaps beyond.

So - who is right?  And what does all this mean for a prospective entrepreneur?  Consider this...

"The opposite of a correct statement is a false statement. But the opposite of a profound truth may well be another profound truth."

    Niels Bohr

Personally, I think there is value in all three of the above arguments, and that any of them taken alone is clearly insufficient to explain what I can observe of the world. 

So, my friendly entrepreneur, what this means is that dependence upon any single analysis of the world is likely to be dangerous for your start-up business.  And the warning applies not only to views of the entire global economic system, but also to local, regional, or national systems.  And it is valid for tight niches of specialized end-users, too.

It is really, really tough to be correct, let alone profound.  In fact, in the realm of the know-able, it is well-nigh impossible.  There is too much to know.  The good news is that entrepreneurs don't have to be profound, or even correct. 

True entrepreneurs - like you - have two great advantages over mere mortals.  You have high tolerance for uncertainty, the uncanny ability to manage risk.  And, being non-dogmatic, you can revise your plans as new information becomes available over time.

Honest critics - priceless!!

"People ask for criticism, but they only want praise."

W. Somerset Maugham

In an earlier post, I suggested the possibility that the idiots might be right - that those who disagree with you and me could, in fact, have valid points.  And I am convinced  that most people do not want to hear my opinion, and they certainly do not want my advice.  So, given (at least I believe this) that opinion and advice are held in low esteem, it would seem logical to focus on pure, sweet information.  Information is neutral, by definition, right?

Information: the sky is blue.

Opinion: blue skies are beautiful.

Advice: you should go outside and see that beautiful blue sky.

What if I really am wrong, dead wrong?  I know that sounds totally implausible.  But if I routinely reject opinion and advice, how will I know I am wrong, and adjust my plans accordingly? 

It gets worse.  We are discussing, my entrepreneurial friends, a common, and very serious type of mistake.  None of us, not you, and certainly not I, are nearly as well-informed as we ought to be, or can be.  That is because, as pointed out by Peter Senge and many others, we tend to reject perfectly valid information that does not conform to our preferred vision of the world.  Check out "the ladder of inference" and see for yourself.

Diogenes of Sinope carried a lamp through the streets in the daytime and said he was looking for an honest man.  That may have been a fool's errand, but it was noble and principled.  I say grab a lamp and scour the world for honest critics!  Hunt them down and collect them.  Mount them in your office as trophies.  They are rare and, like all rare things, priceless.

Of course, once we find them, we must, as they say, heed them.  Oops!  That can hurt.  But it only hurts for a little while, I assure you.  And the pain it prevents can be much worse, even deadly.  I routinely urge myself and all my friends to peel away the painful layers of opinion and advice that surround perfectly good information.  Let the critics rail.  Then figure out why they were railing.  Extract the "blue sky" from the pompous admonitions.  They can prevent us from rejecting valid information simply because it is uncomfortable, because it invalidates our business strategy.

So, I ask you, what's worse, a little embarrassment, a temporary comeuppance, or a failed business? 

It takes both Modesty and Moxie to welcome criticism.  Do you have what it takes?

Seven-minute safety net for entrepreneurs

"All you need in this life is ignorance and confidence; then success is sure."

    Mark Twain

I sometimes wonder how far Mark Twain could jam his tongue into his cheek. 

Launching a business from a position of ignorance will not assure success.  That's obvious.  Entrepreneurs clearly have confidence.  It's part of what I call Moxie.  But they absolutely must avoid ignorance.  Duh.

Here's what I like to think Twain might have said, if he had been a business consultant, instead of one of the greatest humorists and social commentators of all time.

Stop mental mildew - NOW!

"Molds that cause mildew flourish wherever it is damp, warm, poorly lighted and/or where air is not circulated."

University of Missouri Extension Service

Some of the most common Mistakes committed by entrepreneurs are the direct result of mental mildew.  Sad, but true.  And mental mildew forms easily.  It's spores are first planted early in life, and regularly replanted, each time curiosity is stifled by some "proper" demand for dogmatic acceptance.

All brains are damp and warm - mildew heaven.  That's physiology, and there's nothing we can do about it.  But we can certainly light them up and circulate fresh air on a regular basis. 

So, you might ask, what are the most readily available sources of bright light and fresh air?  There are at least two dependable options.

First, the lunatic fringe.  That's right.  Carefully and deliberately consider the raves, rants, fashion, science, and art of the avant garde.  Explore the world of "too much."  There is a very, very fine line between goofy and prophetic.

Remember when a T-shirt under a sport jacket was really edgy?  And now it's trendy.  Older readers can remember when the Beatles were shocking.  Now they're classic.  Not that long ago viewers were amused when Star Trek characters communicated through absurdly tiny chest-mounted pins.  Now we have Bluetooth ear pods.

Pablo Picasso put it this way, "Good taste is the enemy of creativity."  Steve Jobs was even more direct.  He said, "Don't be trapped by dogma."  Dogma is an expression of certainty; and certainty, true certainty, is in very short supply.  (See Heisenberg Compensators.)

Nobel Prize winner Ilya Prigogine said this, "The future is uncertain... but this uncertainty is at the very heart of human creativity."  The ability to deal with uncertainty, and to flourish in its presence, is one of the defining characteristics of successful entrepreneurs.

Of course, it is a bit risky to drive a long way down that road.  Your traditional clients and colleagues, not to mention friends and family, will tolerate, or even enjoy, a little bit of envelope pushing.  But most of them will promptly distance themselves from an apparent nut case. 

Still, if you're going to make something important happen, you have to take the leap.  The others may just be dead wrong, or at least unfortunately ignorant.

Another piece of insight on this topic - "The greater the ignorance the greater the dogmatism." - Sir William Osler.  

Don't let that ignorance be yours.

The second, and most reliable, great source of bright light and fresh air to combat mental mildew is the opinion and dogma of everyone who disagrees with you.  I know.  It's hard to believe those idiots even have functioning brains, let alone some true insight.  But they might just be 100% right, and what would that make you?

So, if you nibble at the edges of the lunatic fringe and seriously consider the possibility that the idiots are right, you can probably keep mental mildew at bay.  But remember, it's insidious and persistent. And once established, it grows very quickly.

Why am I doing this?

"I have come to the conclusion that my subjective account of my motivation is largely mythical on almost all occasions. I don't know why I do things."

    J. B. S. Haldane

"Despite how certainty feels, it is neither a conscious choice nor even a thought process. Certainty and similar states of “knowing what we know” are sensations that feel like thoughts, but arise out of involuntary brain mechanisms that function independently of reason."

    Robert A. Burton

In order to get what I want, I have to know what I want.  Duh!  But I have to admit that on numerous, perhaps countless, occasions I have carefully considered all the options, scientifically selected my wants, and set out to possess them - only to find that I almost immediately take actions that are clearly at cross-purposes with reaching my meticulously selected targets.

Is this a character flaw?  Surely not.  I'm perfect, right?  Good news.  It's not a character flaw - even though I'm far from perfect.  According to Dr. Robert Burton, it's a physiological attribute shared by all humans.  Certainty, says Burton, is really a sensation, like anger.  In his provocative book, ON BEING CERTAIN: Believing You Are Right Even When You're Not, he explores all sorts of interesting and troublesome issues that arise from this phenomenon.

Another angle on this conundrum is offered by Chip and Dan Heath in their new book, Switch.  Shawn Callahan of Anecdote, explains it this way -

When we are making a decision we're often torn between our rational, logical reasons and our emotional, intuitive feelings. Chip and Dan ask us to imagine an Elephant and its Rider (the mahout). The Rider represents the rational and logical. Tell the Rider what to do, provide a good argument and the Rider will do it. The Elephant, on the other hand, represents our emotions, our gut response. The Rider might like to avoid that hamburger and chips but there is very little the Rider can do if the Elephant really wants it (OK, so I'm telling you what happened last night). To complete their analogy they include the Path they are traveling along. If the Rider can direct the Elephant down a well prepared Path then there is a good chance for change.

So, there is a difference between what I think is true and what I feel is true - and at decision time feel generally wins.  In fact, says Burton, the immense power of feel quite regularly makes us certain that our felt opinion is actually fact.  We just think we are thinking.  (At least I think that's what he was thinking when he thought he was writing this stuff.)  There is also a difference between what we think we want and what we really want - like when I think I want to lose weight, but I really want potato chips in large quantities.

When I ask a prospective entrepreneur why she is "doing this," and she says "it's a cool idea," I immediately begin to question her Moxie.  If she says "because it really needs to be done," I start to pay closer attention.  If she says "because I can't not do it," the interchange gets serious.

Two of the four primary ingredients in Moxie are Motivation and Meaning.  In some sense they roughly correspond to the Rider and the Elephant, to the thinking and the feeling.

In my experience, if these two are not both powerful and well-aligned, the start-up is seriously at risk from the outset.  The founder is likely to lose interest and find another, more engaging way to invest energy, time, and money.

So, a really good question for every wannabee business founder is "Why, when I boil it all down, am I really, truly doing this?"